Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Fantasy Rankings Part 4: TEs

Now, we focus on tight ends, which are gaining importance in today's emphasis on passing in the NFL,  and should become more important in the future. Last season became the Year of the Tight End in fantasy circles, and this trend could continue.

1. Rob Gronkowski, Patriots


2011 stats: 124 targets, 90 rec, 1327 yds, 14.7 avg, 17 TD
2012 stats: 109 targets, 83 rec, 1216 yds, 14.7 avg, 13 TD

Upside: Big, physical, red zone threat, porn stars on the side

Downside: Coming off ankle ligament surgery, unlikely to repeat last year, more likely to be doubled

2. Jimmy Graham, Saints


2011 stats: 149 targets, 99 rec, 1310 yds, 13.2 avg, 11 TD
2012 stats: 131 targets, 88 rec, 1245 yds, 14.1 avg, 10 TD

Upside: Big play potential (13 plays of 25+ yds), targeted frequently, carries more of the offensive load w/o Meachem

Downside: Saints bounty distractions, defenses doubling him more, challenge to repeat last year



3. Antonio Gates, Chargers


2011 stats: 90 targets, 64 rec, 778 yds, 12.2 avg, 7 TD
2012 stats: 101 targets, 74 rec, 967 yds, 13.1 avg, 9 TD

Upside: May get more without V-Jax, still a good route runner, still a red zone threat

Downside: Getting older (just turned 32), injuries the last couple of years, not the player he was 3-4 years ago

4. Vernon Davis, 49ers


2011 stats: 95 targets, 67 rec, 792 yds, 11.8 avg, 6 TD
2012 projections: 109 targets, 70 rec, 914 yds, 13.1 avg, 8 TD

Upside: Big play potential, red zone threat, finally has a feel for Harbaugh's offense 

Downside: Smith's conservative style may limit him, inconsistency as a result

5. Jason Witten, Cowboys


2011 stats: 117 targets, 79 rec, 942 yds, 11.9 avg, 5 TD
2012 stats: 118 targets, 78 rec, 951 yds, 12.2 avg, 7 TD

Upside: Solid, still very productive and fairly consistent, red zone threat

Downside: Injury risk, may not be the same as he was a couple of years ago

6. Aaron Hernandez, Patriots


2011 stats: 113 targets, 79 rec, 910 yds, 11.5 avg, 7 TD
2012 stats: 100 targets, 70 rec, 804 yds, 11.5 avg, 6 TD

Upside: Solid production, could get some targets Gronk normally gets due to defense, deep threat

Downside: Brandon Lloyd could take away, defenses focused on him too

7. Jermichael Finley, Packers


2011 stats: 93 targets, 55 rec, 767 yds, 13.9 avg, 8 TD
2012 stats: 89 targets, 61 rec, 852 yds, 14.0 avg, 7 TD

Upside: Probably can fix his dropping problems, Rodgers is his QB, should improve a bit

Downside: Drops a lot, does not rack up a lot of yards

8. Tony Gonzalez, Falcons


2011 stats: 116 targets, 80 rec, 875 yds, 10.9 avg, 7 TD
2012 projections: 117 targets, 77 rec, 835 yds, 10.8 avg, 6 TD

Upside: Still a dangerous route runner, still tough to defend and cover, good at catching

Downside: Losing his legs, after the catch average down, aging

9. Fred Davis, Redskins


2011 stats: 88 targets, 59 rec, 796 yds, 13.5 avg, 3 TD
2012 stats: 90 targets, 60 rec, 817 yds, 13.6 avg, 5 TD

Upside: Potential with RGIII, great after catch, athletic

Downside: Issues with the NFL (suspended last 4 games for weed), under franchise tag

10. Brandon Pettigrew, Lions


2011 stats: 126 targets, 83 rec, 777 yds, 9.4 avg, 5 TD
2012 stats: 111 targets, 71 rec, 712 yds, 10.0 avg, 6 TD

Upside: Targeted a lot, could factor into offense with Megatron covered, great blocker

Downside: Average yards at catch low, numbers aren't as great as some other TEs

Others Worth Considering

Jacob Tamme, Broncos


2011 stats: 31 targets, 19 rec, 177 yds, 9.3 avg, 1 TD
2012 projections: 94 targets, 64 rec, 769 yds, 12.0 avg, 5 TD

Upside: Reunited with Peyton Manning, decent route runner, can get some red zone yards/TDs

Downside: Broncos signed another TE (Joel Dreessen), may lose some yards/TDs as a result

Brent Celek, Eagles


2011 stats: 96 targets, 62 rec, 811 yds, 13.1 avg, 3 TD
2012 projections: 95 targets, 60 rec, 732 yds, 12.2 avg, 5 TD

Upside: Great blocker, solid #2 TE, red zone possibilities

Downside: Coming off surgery, never sent deep 

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