Tuesday, April 24, 2012

NFL Schedule Picks and Predictions

With the NFL offseason in full swing with the Draft this week, and speculation on who's going where, I'd like to focus on another thing: the upcoming 2012 NFL season. I know it's a little early, but like Christmas , it'll be here sooner than you think. So with the release of the new NFL schedule last week, I would like to give my take on each of the 32 NFL teams, and my early predictions on them division-by-division, starting with the AFC East.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills- The Bills are a team that I had a hard time predicting for. They made some good offseason moves, such as signing Mario Williams away from the Houston Texans to improve their defense, and have a rising star in receiver Stevie Johnson. Last year, they were hot out of the gate at 5-2, but faded after that, going 1-8 the rest of the way and finishing 6-10.

They have a tough schedule the first 6 weeks, after 3 winnable games to start (at Jets, vs. Chiefs, at Browns) they then have to face the Patriots at home in Week 4, then they go out West the next 2 weeks to face the 49ers in San Francisco, and a potential trap game lies the following week in the dome in Arizona against the Cardinals, then face the Titans at home in Week 7. After a Week 8 bye, they face two very tough opponents on the road. Mario Williams returns to Houston to face his old teammates in Week 9, followed up by a trip to Foxboro and a rematch with the Patriots. After those 2 games, they have a number of winnable games (vs. Fins, at Colts, vs. Jaguars, vs. Rams, vs. Seahawks, at Fins, vs. Jets) which could allow for a hot finish, but could also have a number of trap games, depending on who's hot at the time.

My prediction: They face some tough teams and probably go 3-4 before the bye week, then go 6-3 afterwards, to finish 9-7. They have the potential to win even 10 games, and with the way the schedule is set up, it would not surprise me too much.

Miami Dolphins- The Dolphins spent a lot of the offseason trying to pursue a QB, and for a little bit were considered to be in the mix to sign Peyton Manning after the Colts released him. They are still in what has been a continuous rebuilding process since the retirement of Dan Marino. The Dolphins are led by Reggie Bush, who had his best year in the NFL last year.

Miami's schedule opens with a tough game against the Texans in Houston in Week 1, then they have winnable games each of the next 3 weeks (vs. Raiders, vs. Jets, at Cardinals), then face a tough Bengals team in Cincinnati in Week 5 and host the Rams in Week 6 before the bye in Week 7. It doesn't get any easier for them afterwards, having to travel to the Meadowlands to face their rivals the Jets in Week 8, then face Andrew Luck and the Colts in Indianapolis in a potential upset game in Week 9. The Dolphins then face 3 treacherous games in Weeks 10-12 (vs. Titans, at Bills, vs. Seahawks), then have back-to-back games against 2 potential Super Bowl contenders: (vs. Patriots, at 49ers). They then face the Jaguars and Bills at home before wrapping up the season in Foxboro against the Patriots.

My prediction: The Dolphins go 2-4 heading into the bye, then go 3-7 the rest of the way to end the season 5-11. The Dolphins face a number of tough teams, such as the Texans, Bengals, Patriots, and 49ers.

New England Patriots- They lost to the Giants and fell just short of the Super Bowl title (again), but this is a team that has shown they can contend consistently every year. They added Brandon Lloyd, who should give them another receiving threat to go with Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. They have the NFL's easiest schedule percentage-wise (.453), which could work in their favor.

The Pats open the season with two winnable games (@ Titans, vs. Cardinals) before a Sunday night showdown in week 3, of last year's AFC Championship against the Ravens in Baltimore. After a Week 4 trip to Buffalo to face the Bills, a Brady-Manning showdown in Foxboro follows in Week 5 when the Pats host the Broncos. The Pats then have 3 winnable games (@ Seahawks, vs. Jets, @ Rams) in Weeks 6-8 before the Week 9 bye. Their first 4 games after the bye are also winnable (vs. Bills, @ Colts, @ Jets on Thanksgiving, @ Dolphins), leading up to a Monday night game against the Texans in Week 14, which is followed up by a Sunday night matchup with the 49ers in Week 15, which will be very tough games for the Pats. After the back-to-back tough games, they close out the season with 2 more winnable games at Jacksonville, then the regular-season finale at home against the Dolphins.

My prediction: The Patriots go 7-1 before the bye, losing in Baltimore, then also go 7-1 after the bye, with a loss to the 49ers, giving the Patriots a record 14-2. Overall, the Patriots can and should be able to take advantage of the easiness of the schedule.

New York Jets- This is a team with a number of storylines going into the season. The main being the arrival of Tim Tebow, and the potential quarterback competition between Sanchez and Tebow. This leaves me wondering: Who will be the Jets' starting QB at the end of the season? Will Mark Sanchez hang on to his job, or will the fans' chanting for Tebow when Sanchez struggles convince Rex Ryan to give him the starting job?

The Jets open the season at home against the Bills, a potentially dangerous opponent, then face a tough Steeler team in Pittsburgh Week 2, a rematch of the 2010 AFC Championship Game. The next 2 games after that (at 49ers, vs. Texans on Monday night) will be tough to say the least, and could make or break their season. After facing the Colts at home, they have the Patriots in New England and the Dolphins at home before a bye in Week 9. They then face two potential trap games (at Seahawks, at Rams) before a nationally televised Thanksgiving night home game with the Patriots. Afterwards, they face another potential trap hosting the Cardinals in Week 13. They then face the Jaguars and Titans, both on the road, and then wrap up the season with a home game against the Chargers and a road game in Buffalo Week 17.

My prediction: The Jets go 2-6 before the bye, struggling through their games, then go 4-4 after the bye to finish with a 6-10 record. The Jets, while having the 20th toughest schedule in the league based on winning percentage, face a loaded schedule and a some tough games.

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