It's that time of the year again, people. The NBA Playoffs. Two months of action on a basketball court, it doesn't get any better. This year's playoffs should be particularly interesting with many storylines and potential subplots that could decide series. So, enough of that, and let's get straight to my 1st round picks, and I will also try to predict the rest of the playoffs best as I can.
Western Conference
(3) Los Angeles Lakers (41-25) vs. (6) Denver Nuggets (38-28)
Lakers: They are led once again by the ageless Kobe Bryant. At 33, and in his 16th season, he continues to play at a very high level and remains the best closer in the game, despite his struggles at times. The big question mark in this series is at the small forward spot, as Metta World Peace was suspended 7 games for his elbow on James Harden. It is likely that he will be out for the entire series, and that he will not be back until Round 2, if the Lakers make it there. While Devin Ebanks or Matt Barnes cannot replace Metta especially on defense, though Barnes himself is a solid defender. One particular advantage the Lakers have in this series is their pair of 7-footers, Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. Look for the Lakers to go those two early, then have Kobe close out games late and take the big shots.
Nuggets: Despite injuries and setbacks, the Denver Nuggets have survived the regular season and fought their way to the playoffs. Coach George Karl has them playing very well and they have a very deep team. The Nuggets have a potent backcourt led by Arron Afflalo and Ty Lawson, with two very solid reserves in Andre Miller and Rudy Fernandez. In the frontcourt, the loss of small forward Wilson Chandler to surgery will undoubtedly hurt them, but they have Danillo Gallinari and Javale McGee, along with Al Harrington, Kenneth Faried, Chris "Birdman" Andersen, and Corey Brewer for depth. The Nuggets play a very fast-paced game, which can work out to their advantage, but can also hurt them sometimes on defense.
Summary: The Lakers have one of the best power forward-center combos in Gasol and Bynum, and also have the best closer in the game in Kobe Bryant. Point guard Ramon Sessions, who the Lakers acquired at the deadline, could make the Lakers' matchup with the speedy Ty Lawson a bit easier. Another problem for the Nuggets is that they do not have a true #1 closer like the Lakers, and that could hurt them late in games. This will be a tough series, and the Lakers' lack of depth does not make it any easier. In fact, a number of analysts have said this could be an upset in the making. I, however, am not one of those people. In my view, Kobe and the two 7-footers will be just too much for the Nuggets in the end.
Verdict: Lakers in 6, could end in 5 if everything goes right, with 7 a real possibility too.
(1) San Antonio Spurs (50-16) vs. (8) Utah Jazz (36-30)
Spurs: The San Antonio Spurs have once again flown under the radar and are #1 in the West for a second straight year. They are a very deep team, led by their core trio from championships past, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and Tim Duncan. Even though the supporting cast has changed, the results remain the same, and the Spurs have continued to win. The supporting cast is very strong and includes forwards Stephen Jackson, Kawhi Leonard, and Boris Diaw, guards Danny Green, Gary Neal, and Patty Mills, and centers DeJuan Blair, Tiago Splitter, and Matt Bonner. The Spurs are a very good shooting team, especially from the perimeter. Also, the Spurs are led by one of the best coaches in the history of the NBA, Gregg Popovich, a 4-time champ.
Jazz: The Utah Jazz are a rough and rugged team with a very strong frontcourt, led by the duo of Al Jefferson in the middle, and Paul Millsap at power forward. Along with the Lakers and Grizzlies, the Jazz have one of the best power forward-center combos in the NBA. Their supporting cast is not to be overlooked, though. With vets Devin Harris and Raja Bell in the back court and second-year man Gordon Hayward filling out the frontcourt, along with Earl Watson, C.J. Miles, and Derrick Favors, this is a scrappy bunch that will make you fight for every possession, every rebound, and every point, especially down low. Despite their seeding, this is a team that should not be underestimated by any means.
Summary: The Spurs have a number of players who can really shoot the ball anywhere, especially from downtown. With the core of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili, and Popovich on the bench, they have a championship pedigree. That combination of long-range shooting and experienced core should be very dangerous in this and whatever other series they play. However, the Utah Jazz did not get this far by being pushovers. They play a gritty, tough brand of basketball that will wear you down physically over the course of 48 minutes. However, the Spurs carry the memories of last year, when they were also a #1 seed and were knocked out in the 1st round by the #8 seed Memphis Grizzlies.
Verdict: Spurs in 5, but don't be surprised if it goes 6.
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19) vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks (36-30)
Thunder: For most of the year, the Thunder owned the #1 seed out West before a series of late-season losses moved them down to #2. However, this team still goes into the playoffs as one of the favorites, led by their dynamic young stars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Their frontcourt of Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins gives them defensive presence, and championship experience, in Perkins' case. James Harden, who was famously elbowed by Metta World Peace and suffered a concussion, has been cleared to play, and will almost certainly play in this series. Plus, they have a solid bench filled out by guards Derek Fisher, who brings championship experience, and Thabo Sefolosha, along with forwards Nazr Mohammed, Nick Collison, and Daequan Cook.
Mavs: The defending champs took a step backwards this year. The losses of Tyson Chandler and J.J. Barea almost certainly played a role in it, along with the Lamar Odom fiasco. However, the core of Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, Shawn Marion, and Jason Terry off the bench remains, and this could be a dangerous team once again when the playoffs begin. This is a team that has plenty of experience to go around, and will be a tough out. They've traveled this road before, they know what it takes, and they truly believe that they have another title run in them. Along with the core group, Delonte West, Brendan Haywood, Brandan Wright, and Vince Carter provide some support for the Mavs.
Summary: The Thunder are young and athletic, and love to run up and down the court. They love to play a transition game, forcing turnovers in hope of turning them into easy points. The Mavericks are one team that has a formula to beat the Thunder, which they used in last year's Western Conference Finals. The Mavericks were able to beat the Thunder by keeping the ball away from Kevin Durant and forcing Russell Westbrook to win games by himself, and it worked. However, this Thunder team is a year older and a year wiser, and will be much harder to beat. This will still be a tough series for both teams, though.
Verdict: Thunder in 6, but do not be surprised if the Mavericks pull it out.
(4) Memphis Grizzlies (41-25) vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers (40-26)
Grizzlies: Last year's Cinderella playoff team is at it again, although this time, they will not be able to sneak up on everyone. The Grizz's specialty is a bruising, physical brand of basketball that will wear down basically any team. They are equipped to beat a lot of Western teams and have the resources to do so. They have what may be the best frontcourt in the league, with Marc Gasol at center, Z-Bo, Zach Randolph, and Rudy Gay at power and small forward, respectively. They also have one of the most underrated point guards in the NBA in Mike Conley and a defensive minded guard with championship experience in Tony Allen at the 2. Also, Lionel Hollins has established himself as one of the NBA's best coaches with his defensive-minded approach.
Clippers: The so-called "Lob City" entered the season with a lot of hype, after Chris Paul was acquired in a trade with New Orleans after an original trade to the Lakers was vetoed. This is a young, athletic team that loves to run. Chauncey Billups, who was supposed to add veteran leadership and experience, was lost, but Randy Foye fills the job with his long-range shooting. Caron Butler can also shoot, and the Clippers have a forward-center combo of Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan that is athletic as they come. Plus, the Clippers have some bench players in Mo Williams (for shooting), and Kenyon Martin and Reggie Evans (inside game, rebounding). While this is no doubt a talented team, there are questions about playoff experience.
Summary: The Grizzlies are a very physical, knock-you-down type of team, and that style, while far from the most exciting to watch, is very useful in the playoffs, especially in half-court sets. That poses a problem for the Clippers, as they are most effective in transition, and with observations that Blake Griffin, despite having the ability to power his way to the rim and dunk, can be easily pushed around by physical bigs, and has been the target of hard fouls. I expect Griffin to get his points, but I also expect Gasol and Randolph to force the issue with him and give him a tough time inside, and as a result, Griffin will be denied rebounds and putbacks he usually gets with ease.
Summary: Grizzlies in 6, but won't be shocked if it goes 7 either.
Assuming all my predictions come true, here's how I view the rest of the Western Conference playoffs to pan out:
Conference Semis: Lakers over Thunder, Grizzlies over Spurs
Conference Finals: Lakers over Grizzlies
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